Saturday, July 30, 2005

Mmm... stats...

The Mecca of baseball websites, Baseball Prospectus, is giving a free preview of its privileged (read as: $5 a month) content until Wednesday, so by all means take a peek and see what it's all about.

The Postseason Odds report is pretty cool -- using the available data from the 2005 season thus far, the folks at BP ran a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining games a million times to predict the likely winners of the Division and Wild Card slots. In the sims Boston took the AL East 64.75040% of the time and the Wild Card 8.19819%, which meant that in 72.94859% of the time the Red Sox got to the playoffs.

What the report failed to mention, however, is how many times Manny Ramirez got his sorry overpaid ass traded to the Mets over the course of a million simulations...

(Link via Salon's King Kaufman)

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