Omigodwereallgoingtodie!

Over at Daily Kos they're "celebrating" Pandemic Flu Awareness Week, where lots of knowledgeable people are making some pretty scary prognostications about what would happen if we get hit with an outbreak of the avian flu, which is far more virulent and deadly than your garden variety strain of influenza. You may have heard about bird flu recently, as President Bush completely baffled a press conference this past week by mentioning that his administration might try to quarantine the outbreak by using the U.S. Military (in direct violation of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, natch).

Why has this formerly obscure threat to the human race suddenly been elevated to the level of Orange Alerts and duct tape? Well, apart from the now-customary outbreak of hysteria which now inevitably accompanies the onset of flu season ("Got your flu shot? Too late -- you're going to die!"), scientists announced in the latest issue of Nature that they had successfully resurrected a sample of the 1918 strain of influenza that was responsible for millions of deaths worldwide -- the so-called "Spanish Flu" -- and found that it was a variety of avian flu that had mutated enough to be able to infect humans.

So are we in fact doomed? As much as we like to worry -- and let's face it, we denizens of the 21st century love ourselves a good worryin'! -- there are some very good reasons not to give in to fear and panic about this new and frightening bolus of news to wash down with our morning coffee:

1. Transportation may be faster than it was in 1918, but communication is even faster. Part of what made the Spanish flu so deadly was not just a function of the rapid movement of peoples but also the limitations of global communications at that time. With experts on the watch for avian flu all over the world in constant contact via the internet and other instantaneous mediums, we increase our chances at coordinating a transnational response to an outbreak.

2. Hurrah for the suburbs. Another important difference between 1918 and today is the fact that an increasing amount of people worldwide do not live in concentrated population centers (remember that even a village puts people in pretty close proximity to one another, just as much as a city would). Suburbs may prove to act as "firewalls" against a pandemic from spreading from region to region.

3. Smallpox. How New York City handled the epidemic of Smallpox (no less virulent and deadly as a bird flu) in 1947 gives me hope that public officials would respond as swiftly and competently as they did back then. As has been pointed out repeatedly here and elsewhere, people dedicate their lives to worrying about this so that the ordinary person doesn't have to. I may not trust the Bush Administration, but I trust first responders to do the right thing in case of an outbreak.

But as always, knowledge is our best weapon. Thanks to modern medicine, we know what causes and transmits the flu, whereas in 1918 even that was still somewhat of a mystery, as viruses had not yet been discovered. When/if an outbreak of avian flu occurs that jumps to humans, it can still be foiled by something as simple as frequent handwashing and other basic points of sanitary behavior. Not by any means a cure-all, but it could make a huge difference in the difference between an epidemic and a pandemic. And of course keep informed and up-to-date at the Flu Wiki, which is an invaluable online resource created by professional experts and concerned amateurs.

Now these points aren't meant to refute the obvious -- that bird flu is a serious potential threat to humankind and merits the awareness of the general public. However, there's been an awful lot of freaking out going on in every flu-related piece of news I've read over the past week, so I thought I'd try and inject a little bit of optimism so as to counteract what could easily mount in full-blown hysteria.

So let's not bury the human race quite yet, okay?